Development of a forecasting approach using stochastic methods applied to the Soufrière Hills volcano

Within the framework of the EU-project MULTIMO (Multi-disciplinary monitoring, modelling and forecasting of volcanic hazard), a stochastic methodology aiming at forecasting volcanic activity in the near future is currently under development. This approach is based on geostatistical concepts and allows the characterisation of the behaviour for time series recorded at active volcanoes. The following steps are considered for analysis and simulation of discrete and continuous variables taken from multi-parametric data sets: (a) analysis and parameterisation of time behaviour by variogram calculation, (b) stochastic simulation for Monte Carlo forecasting and (c) kriging analysis for estimation of time components related to precursors of volcanic activity.