Estimation of lineup efficiency effects in Basketball using play-by-play data

The paper aims at defining a data-driven approach to team management in basketball. A model-based strategy, based on a modification of the adjusted plus-minus approach, is proposed for the analyses of the match progress. The main idea is to define a model based on the 5-man lineups instead of the single players. In this framework, given the large number of possible lineups, the regularization issue is quite relevant. The empirical application is based on the data of the current Italian championship (Serie A1). The play-by-play data are considered along with some information resulting from the game box scores.