Eliciting students' stated preferences between alternative car powertrains to forecast electric car uptake in Italy and China: An application of discrete choice and agent-based models

English

Electric vehicles (EVs) are expected to play an important role in reducing carbon emissions and environmental problems in the car market. Consumers’ preferences play an important role in EVs uptake. In this study, we have compared consumers’ preferences regarding car choices in Italy and China to discover differences and commonalities by integrating vehicle attributes (e.g., price and range) with socioeconomic and latent variables. We carried out a stated choice experiment and collected data on a sample of Italian (N= 436) and Chinese (N= 358) respondents using a web-based questionnaire from March to November 2021. The discrete choice model is the principal methodology in our research, and we developed a hybrid mixed logit model to explore the roles of attitudes. We have found that the attributes of the purchase price and driving range are significantly important in the potential purchase in both countries. Heterogeneity preference existed in our samples. Italians are more range sensitive. Specifically, the availability of garage charging has a significant positive effect on the choices of EVs. According to our analysis, all the latent variables used in our research have a statistically significant impact on the choice of EVs. In particular, charging awareness is stronger among Italian EV buyers than Chinese EV buyers. The findings imply that policymakers should consider heterogeneous preferences in intervention policies regarding the EV market. In order to simulate the potential adoption of EVs in Italy and China, we have employed an agent-based model (ABM) to identify how policy instruments simulate the diffusion of EVs. Three policy implications were carried out in the simulation scenarios: price decrease, driving range increase, and price and technological improvement simultaneously. The increased driving range of BEVs in both countries plays a significant driving force for the uptake of BEVs in the following decades. Although some technological barriers still exist in the current stage, our model simulation implies that incentive promotion simultaneously on price and range could significantly affect EV uptake over a single policy.