Role of Wildfires and Grazing in Habitat Suitability

Among the most striking ecological processes currently affecting Central and Southern Europe are the increase in wildfires and the decline of grazing lands trends driven by land-use changes and climate change. These two processes significantly influence habitat suitability, subsequently altering resident wildlife communities. In the countries participating in the 4Pethabeco project (Italy, Croatia, Slovenia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Albania, and Serbia), wildfires in 2025 affected over 280,000 hectares. This figure represents a 50% increase over the historical average, with peaks of 150% in Albania, 300% in Serbia, and 75% in Montenegro. On average, 50% of these fires occur in forested areas. Conversely, while overall forest cover across these countries has increased by 1–6% over the last 20 years, this expansion is often concentrated in transition zones—areas that face the highest fire risk. Wildfires influence the presence of wildlife and large carnivores, particularly in the short term, by: a) Reducing refugia: Loss of forest cover and transition habitats. B) Decreasing prey availability. The reduction of grazing (2-20% decline in pastures over the last 20 years in different countries), which is associated with specific declining wildlife communities, also paradoxically affects the presence of carnivores. This occurs indirectly by: a) Reducing wild prey populations b) Increasing the vulnerability of livestock activities, leading to heightened conflict and a decrease in social acceptance of carnivores. Maintaining grazing lands is essential for reducing the risk of specific types of wildfires and preventing land fragmentation. The frequency, extent, and intensity of fires, combined with the loss of grazing areas, must be factored into territorial planning. These factors must be actively addressed through specific natural resource management strategies and integrated into predictive models for occupancy and connectivity within project areas. Ultimately, the effects of fire and grazing must be studied across various time scales to better interpret their complex relationships with wildlife.