DEVIN : a simulator of volcanic events considered in terms of a stochastic punctual process

Within the framework of the EU-project MULTIMO (Multi-disciplinary monitoring, modelling and forecasting of volcanic hazard), a software called DEVIN (Deducing Eruptions of Volcanoes In Near future) aiming at forecasting volcanic activity in the near future is currently under development. DEVIN is based on geostatistical concepts and allows the characterisation of the behaviour of time series recorded at active volcanoes. The functions of DEVIN used for the simulation of discrete and continuous variables are the following: - Time behaviour analysis by variogram calculation. - Time behaviour parametrisation by variogram modelling. - Stochastic simulation for Monte Carlo forecasting and data reconstruction (i.e., gap filling). - Kriging analysis for estimation of time components related to volcanic activity. - Statistical analysis and visualisation of modelling results. DEVIN is an open source software, running under Scilab, that applies specific routines written in C and Fortran in order to avoid time consuming computations. DEVIN is a tool which provides the possibility to model time behaviour as characterised from multi-parametric data sets. It, therefore, should reduce the uncertainty in forecasts of volcanic activity.