When performing volcanic risk assessments, the volcanic system constitutes the dominant source of uncertainty. Uncertainty is mainly related to imperfect knowledge of non-linear volcanic processes, to space-time variability of distribution and intensity for volcanic events and to a limited amount of information. Therefore, the estimation of volcanic hazard is generally performed using a probabilistic formalism. Geostatistics provides operational tools and probabilistic models for the characterisation and the estimation of volcanic hazard over the short as well as the long term. A methodology using geostatistical tools was developed which enables the analysis of multi-parametric data sampled over time at active volcanoes. Such a probabilistic approach provides valuable information for the identification of precursors potentially, leading to the onset of eruptive activity. Recent efforts to develop a geologic repository in Japan have sparked the development of a specific stochastic model for improving uncertainty characterization with respect to long-term forecasts. Applications to the Etna volcano and the volcanic arc of Tohoku illustrate the proposed methodology and models. Finally some conceptual thoughts are proposed for the development of data assimilation methods tailored to the estimation of volcanic hazards. Such methods born in the meteorological sciences are likely to reduce forecast uncertainty, especially when large amounts of data become available at the dawning of a volcanic crisis.

Estimation of volcanic hazard: towards more certainty in uncertainty

CARNIEL, Roberto
2007-01-01

Abstract

When performing volcanic risk assessments, the volcanic system constitutes the dominant source of uncertainty. Uncertainty is mainly related to imperfect knowledge of non-linear volcanic processes, to space-time variability of distribution and intensity for volcanic events and to a limited amount of information. Therefore, the estimation of volcanic hazard is generally performed using a probabilistic formalism. Geostatistics provides operational tools and probabilistic models for the characterisation and the estimation of volcanic hazard over the short as well as the long term. A methodology using geostatistical tools was developed which enables the analysis of multi-parametric data sampled over time at active volcanoes. Such a probabilistic approach provides valuable information for the identification of precursors potentially, leading to the onset of eruptive activity. Recent efforts to develop a geologic repository in Japan have sparked the development of a specific stochastic model for improving uncertainty characterization with respect to long-term forecasts. Applications to the Etna volcano and the volcanic arc of Tohoku illustrate the proposed methodology and models. Finally some conceptual thoughts are proposed for the development of data assimilation methods tailored to the estimation of volcanic hazards. Such methods born in the meteorological sciences are likely to reduce forecast uncertainty, especially when large amounts of data become available at the dawning of a volcanic crisis.
File in questo prodotto:
Non ci sono file associati a questo prodotto.

I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.

Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11390/851145
 Attenzione

Attenzione! I dati visualizzati non sono stati sottoposti a validazione da parte dell'ateneo

Citazioni
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.pmc??? ND
  • Scopus ND
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.isi??? ND
social impact