L’influenza della temperatura sulla stagionalità dei concepimenti nella Toscana della Restaurazione

This article analyzes the influence of temperature on conception seasonality in a group of municipalities of the Grand Duchy of Tuscany between 1818 and 1838. The analysis is based on approximately 400,000 births recorded in the Tuscan civil registration system, combined with monthly temperature data from the Ximenian Observatory in Florence. Birth seasonality is reconstructed using standardized monthly indices, while the effect of temperature at the time of conception is assessed through regression models. The results reveal a marked seasonal pattern of births, with a peak in late winter-early spring and a trough in the summer months. Temperature is shown to be associated with conceptions, with lower temperatures at the time of conception linked to a reduced number of births. The magnitude of this effect varies across territorial contexts, being stronger in mountainous areas and weaker in the urban area of Florence.