Less dependent on China? The ASEAN region and Germany’s “de-risking” strategy

Deteriorating Sino-German relations have alerted German policymakers to the substantial security risks associated with asymmetric economic dependencies. “De-risking” (also known as China + 1) has since become the German response to mitigate vulnerabilities. At the core of this strategy is a diversification of political and economic partners. German government documents and official rhetoric designate the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and some of the grouping’s member countries as particularly appropriate “de-risking” partners, characterizing them as “natural partners” and occasionally even “value partners.” This implies that German policymakers see normative overlaps with ASEAN member countries. This article examines the extent to which such normative overlaps exist. With role theory as an analytical framework, it compares German and ASEAN countries’ foreign policy role conceptions. While at first sight, there are indeed normative matches, a closer examination reveals major differences. We argue and show that these differences limit a sustainable deepening and intensification of Germany’s relations with Southeast Asian countries, which also reduces the latter’s significance for Berlin’s “de-risking” policies. Thus, if it tones down its normative zeal, the best that Germany can achieve is a relationship based on pragmatic realpolitik in policy fields with mutual interests.