Prospettive per la filiera del bioetanolo in Italia

This article discusses the perspective scenarios of the Italian market for bioethanol, face to the Eu 2003/30 directive and more generally to the world market for oil and fuels. We examine first the convenience of substituting bioethanol for gasoline; we discuss alternative scenarios for gathering ethanol to the Italian market, comparing import with internal production. We finally try to forecast the impact on the final price of gasoline for final consumption. We show that rising oil prices, more than the internalization of environmental cost, is the main driver that increases the convenience of introducing biofuels. We also argue that for the Italian market imports are actually cheaper than internal product, although this judgment might change in the future in case the world price of agricultural commodities increases and/or tropical ethanol from sugar cane will not be sufficient to satisfy demand. L'articolo analizza le prospettive della filiera del bioetanolo e le sue potenzialità per il raggiungimento della quota interna di sviluppo dei biocarburanti imposta dalla direttiva europea. Vengono esaminati diversi scenari, che prevedono tra l'altro diverse modalità di approvvigionamento della materia prima, sul mercato nazionale e internazionale.